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2 posts tagged with "2026进展"

2026年国产AI芯片最新进展

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Domestic Big Three 2026 H2: Localization Rate Crosses 40% Toward 60%, Ascend 960 Roadmap, MLU690 and S5000 Ecosystems Ramp Up

· 6 min read
Industry Research Team

In 2026, China's AI chip market landscape has shifted from "NVIDIA unipolar dominance" to "overseas vendors leading, domestic multi-route catch-up." According to industry research, China's overall AI accelerator market was ~4M units in 2025, of which 1.65M were domestic, with share first breaking 40%; as products iterate and fabs follow up, the localization rate is expected to rise to 60%-70% by 2027. This article focuses on the latest H2 2026 progress of Huawei Ascend, Cambricon, and Moore Threads — the domestic "Big Three."


1. Huawei Ascend: 950 Capacity Fully Booked, 960 Roadmap Unveiled

Ascend's core advantage is "architecture + full-stack ecosystem synergy," with ~800K units shipped in 2025, capturing 50% of the total domestic vendor share. The product iteration cadence is clear:

TimeProductNote
2025 Q1Ascend 910CMain transitional model
2026 Q1Ascend 950PRInference flagship
2026 Q4 (planned)Ascend 950DTTraining flagship, drives domestic HBM iteration
2027-2028Ascend 960 / 970Roadmap products

950 series capacity has entered a "fully booked" state: 950PR entered mass production in April 2026; June monthly capacity jumped to 500K-600K units (nearly 10x MoM), with a full-year target of 1.2M units at 100% certainty; ByteDance locked in 350K units for $5.6B, while Tencent / Alibaba / Baidu combined locked in 400K units.

Ascend 960 roadmap specs (per roadmap disclosure):

MetricAscend 960
ArchitectureAscend 6th gen (Da Vinci v6)
FP8 compute~4 PFLOPS
Memory288GB
Memory bandwidth9.6 TB/s
Super-nodeAtlas 960 SuperPoD, 15,488 cards, Lingqu optical-electrical converged bus
Debut2027 Q4 (roadmap)

The previous-gen Ascend 384 super-node has cumulatively shipped over 750 sets, deployed across 20+ industries including internet, operators, finance, education, and healthcare — Huawei calls it "the only domestic super-node that has trained a SOTA model."


2. Cambricon MLU690: H2 Mass Production, Entering ByteDance Bidding Window

Cambricon is the core domestic compute leader in the absence of an Ascend IPO, with the technology gap continuously narrowing:

  • Siyuan 590 (7nm): Performance equivalent to 80% of A100, already supports DeepSeek, continuously adapting to mainstream large models like Qwen 3 and GLM
  • Siyuan 690 series: Will enter mass production in H2 2026, expected to achieve order scale-up during ByteDance's H2 bidding window
  • Revenue certainty: Equity incentive targets show >100% revenue growth for the next 3 years: 2026 revenue target 13.5B RMB, 2027 27B RMB, 2028 60B RMB

Cambricon fully benefits from the industry dividend of "domestic CSP capex + full adaptation of domestic large models and domestic chips," making it the most direct elasticity play on rising localization rate.


3. Moore Threads MTT S5000: Full-Function GPU + Ecosystem Breakthrough

Moore Threads takes a differentiated "full-function GPU" route, with the flagship MTT S5000 based on the 4th-gen "Pinghu" MUSA architecture:

MetricMTT S5000
Dense AI compute1000 TFLOPS
Memory80GB
Memory bandwidth1.6 TB/s
Inter-card interconnect784 GB/s
PrecisionFP8 to FP64 full precision (training + inference)
SecurityFirst batch to pass national "Safe and Reliable Evaluation" (Level I)

Its engineering capability is verified: the Kuae (KUAE) intelligent computing cluster based on S5000 achieves 95% training linear scaling efficiency, with compute efficiency loss within 5% at ten-thousand-card scale; supports checkpoint-resume training with effective training time ratio >90%; and has trained a MoE-236B base model with >25 trillion tokens of corpus from scratch.

The ecosystem is Moore Threads' deepest moat: MUSA has achieved 100% core math library compatibility, 3000+ PyTorch operator compatibility, covers 55 categories of core AI operators, has official vLLM and SGLang support, Day-0 adaptation of mainstream models, and 800K+ developers. Its PD heterogeneous-disaggregation solution achieves equivalent replacement of international high-end GPUs at a 2:1 ratio with S5000, significantly reducing inference cost.

The 5th-gen "Huagang" architecture (released 2025-12) supports FP4 to FP64 full precision, with 50% higher compute density and 10x better energy efficiency than the previous gen, supporting 100K+ card clusters; cumulative R&D investment in the "Huashan" (train-infer integrated) and "Lushan" (graphics rendering) new chips based on this architecture exceeds 900M RMB.


4. Software Ecosystem Decides: Day-0 Adaptation Becomes Routine

Beyond hardware, software ecosystem realization is the watershed for domestic compute in 2026:

  • Huawei's CANN heterogeneous computing architecture and MindSeries suite are fully open-sourced, with the community incubating 67 projects, 12.44M+ lines of code, and 3,500+ monthly active developers
  • The "release-and-adapt" closed loop between domestic large models and domestic chips has basically formed: Tencent Hunyuan T3 (295B), DeepSeek-V4, and GLM-5.2 all completed Day-0 adaptation
  • 2026 is regarded as the "first year of domestic super-nodes"; Huatai Securities estimates China's super-node architecture market will reach 341.4B RMB by 2028, with a 2026-2028 CAGR of 194%

5. Industry Judgment: From "Can It Be Built" to "Can It Be Used Well"

The domestic Big Three are converging along three paths:

  1. Huawei: Locks government/enterprise and internet big customers with super-node system-level capability + full-stack software
  2. Cambricon: Impacts the revenue inflection point by narrowing the training-side gap + scaling up via big-customer bidding
  3. Moore Threads: Covers cloud-edge-end full scenarios with full-function GPU generality + mature CUDA-compatible ecosystem

The common shortcoming of all three remains advanced process and HBM supply — precisely the core link of overseas controls. But as domestic HBM iterates and fabs follow up, a realistic path to 60%-70% localization by 2027 exists.

References


This article is compiled from public industry research, broker views, and corporate announcements as of August 2026. Some shipment and market-share figures are third-party estimates, not officially confirmed data.

2026 Domestic AI Chip Progress: Huawei Ascend 950, Baidu Kunlun M100, Alibaba T-Head M890 Fully Explained

· 15 min read
Industry Research Team

In 2026, China's domestic AI chip industry has entered a period of full-scale explosion. The three giants — Huawei Ascend, Baidu Kunlun, and Alibaba T-Head — have successively launched next-generation products, while Cambricon, MetaX, Enflame, and Iluvatar have also achieved important breakthroughs.

This article comprehensively analyzes 2026 domestic AI chip progress across four dimensions: product launches, technology breakthroughs, market dynamics, and ecosystem building.


1. Huawei Ascend: 950 series launched, 960/970 roadmap clear

1.1 Ascend 950PR (launched Q1 2026)

Core specs:

ItemParameter
Launch dateMarch 21, 2026
PlatformAtlas 350 accelerator card
HBM capacity128 GB (Huawei in-house HiBL 1.0 HBM)
Memory bandwidth1.6 TB/s
FP8 compute1 PFLOPS
PositioningInference-specific (Prefill stage)
Performance vs.Single-card compute is 2.87× NVIDIA H20

Technology innovations:

  • First adoption of Huawei in-house HBM solution (HiBL 1.0), lowering cost
  • Supports FP8 low-precision compute, 3× inference energy-efficiency improvement
  • Optimized for inference scenarios such as video recommendation and real-time interaction

Commercialization progress:

  • Mass supply began in Q1 2026
  • Key customers: China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom, Huawei Cloud
  • Priced around ¥100,000/card (¥80,000 for key accounts), ~30% lower than comparable competitors

1.2 Ascend 950DT (launched Q4 2026)

Core specs:

ItemParameter
Launch dateQ4 2026 (expected October)
HBM capacity144 GB (Huawei in-house HiZQ 2.0 HBM)
Memory bandwidth4 TB/s (HiZQ 2.0 technology)
FP8 compute1 PFLOPS
PositioningInference + training (Decode stage + training tasks)
Technology innovationFirst to carry in-house HiZQ 2.0 memory technology

Technology innovations:

  • Adopts HiZQ 2.0 memory technology, 2× data-movement efficiency
  • Supports FP8/FP4 low-precision compute, balancing performance and efficiency
  • Optimized for scenarios such as dialogue generation and large-model training

1.3 950 SuperNode (launched Q4 2026)

System specs:

ItemConfiguration
Max interconnected chips8,192 chips
Total FP8 compute1 EFLOPS (1,024-card scale)
1024-card version16 liquid-cooled cabinets, 64 chips per cabinet
Supported modelsTrillion-parameter large-model training
Deployment progress1,024-card version already in deployment

Performance comparison:

  • 950 SuperNode outperforms NVIDIA's 2027 NVL576 system
  • Leads by 20% in trillion-parameter model training

1.4 Ascend 960/970 roadmap

Chip modelLaunchCore specsPositioning
Ascend 960Q4 2027N+3 process, 288GB HBM, FP8 2 PFLOPS, 30%+ better energy efficiency than 910CUltra-large-scale training
Ascend 970Q4 2028N+3 process, FP4 8 PFLOPS, 4 TB/s bandwidth, supports trillion-parameter modelsNext-gen AI architecture (MoE, etc.)

Technology breakthroughs:

  • Process upgrade: from N+2 (7nm-class) to N+3 (5nm-class)
  • Memory capacity doubled: from 144GB (950DT) to 288GB (960/970)
  • Energy efficiency improved: 960/970 are 30%+ better than 910C
  • Precision optimized: 970 supports FP4 precision, optimized for next-gen AI architectures (MoE, etc.)

1.5 Commercialization progress

Shipment data:

  • 384-card SuperNode: over 500 units deployed, the only truly large-scale commercial SuperNode in China
  • 2026 shipment target: 800k chips (1M cumulative)
  • Market share: 60% of China's AI chip market

Ecosystem building:

  • CANN compiler: open-sourced end of 2025, seamless PyTorch/TensorFlow migration
  • Mind series toolchains: fully open, lowering the developer barrier
  • Ecosystem partners: over 3,000
  • Developer community: over 500k registered developers

2. Baidu Kunlun: M100 inference-specific, Tianchi SuperNode deployed

2.1 Kunlun M100 (launched early 2026)

Core specs:

ItemParameter
Launch dateEarly 2026 (expected Q2)
PositioningInference-specific
ArchitectureIn-house XPU-P architecture (inference-optimized)
Process7nm (SMIC N+2)
HBM capacity64 GB (inference-optimized)
TDP250 W (low-power inference)
Performance vs.1.5× P800 inference, 38% lower power

Technology innovations:

  • Adopts RISC-V open instruction set, adding 50+ AI-specific instructions
  • Compute per watt reaches 8.3 TOPS/W, 2.1× the industry average
  • Supports models from 10 billion to 100 billion parameters for inference

Commercialization progress:

  • Mass supply in Q2 2026
  • Key customers: Baidu Smart Cloud, China Merchants Bank, Southern Grid, Geely Auto
  • Priced around ¥60,000/card, clear cost-performance advantage

2.2 Kunlun M300 (launched early 2027)

Core specs:

ItemParameter
Launch dateQ1 2027 (expected March)
PositioningUltra-large-scale multimodal training
ArchitectureIn-house XPU-P architecture (multimodal-optimized)
Process5nm (SMIC N+3)
HBM capacity256 GB HBM4
TDP500 W
ModalitiesText, images, video and other data types

Technology innovations:

  • Adopts HBM4 memory, bandwidth up to 3.2 TB/s
  • Supports FP8/FP4 low-precision compute, 2× training energy-efficiency
  • Native support for multimodal model training (text + image + video)

2.3 Tianchi 256-card SuperNode (launched June 2026)

System specs:

ItemConfiguration
Launch dateJune 2026 (expected)
Chip count256 Kunlun P800/M100
Effective training rate97%
Inter-chip bandwidth1.2 TB/s
Validated modelsBaidu ERNIE 5.1 and other key large models

Performance breakthroughs:

  • Fully domestic SuperNode, fully autonomous and controllable from chip to network
  • 97% effective training rate, surpassing NVIDIA DGX SuperPOD's 95%
  • Training validation completed for Baidu ERNIE 5.1 and other key large models

2.4 Commercialization progress

Shipment data:

  • P800: 150k shipped in 2025, 200k target in 2026
  • Ten-thousand-card clusters: multiple P800-based clusters delivered
  • Market share: 20% of China's AI chip market

Customer coverage:

  • External customer revenue share: over 50% in 2025
  • China Mobile AI server procurement: P800-based bids won 70%, 70%, 100% shares
  • Key customers: China Merchants Bank, Southern Grid, Geely Auto, iFlytek

IPO progress:

  • May 2026: officially launched STAR Market IPO tutoring
  • Plans "A+H" model — simultaneous A-share and Hong Kong listings
  • Valuation exceeds ¥10 billion

3. Alibaba T-Head: M890 3× performance, Zhenwu series ships 560k units

3.1 T-Head M890 (launched Q2 2026)

Core specs:

ItemParameter
Launch dateQ2 2026 (Alibaba Cloud Summit)
Performance previous generation
HBM capacity144 GB
Inter-chip bandwidth800 GB/s
Precision supportFP8, FP4 low-precision compute
PositioningFull training + inference pipeline

Technology innovations:

  • Adopts in-house ICN inter-chip protocol, inter-chip latency under 150 ns
  • Companion PCCF communication library and ICN Switch chip enable full-bandwidth interconnect of 64 chips within a single node
  • Supports FP8/FP4 low-precision compute, balancing performance and efficiency

3.2 T-Head V900 (launched Q3 2027)

Core specs:

ItemParameter
Launch dateQ3 2027 (expected September)
Performance again over M890
HBM capacity216 GB
Inter-chip bandwidth1,200 GB/s
PositioningUltra-large-scale training

3.3 T-Head G900 (launched Q3 2028)

Core specs:

ItemParameter
Launch dateQ3 2028 (expected September)
PositioningFlagship product for next-gen compute demand
Technology innovationSupports full-pipeline training of trillion-parameter models

3.4 Zhenwu series commercialization progress

Shipment data:

  • Cumulative shipments: over 560k units as of April 2026
  • Customers served: 20+ industries, 400+ customers
  • Autonomous driving: over 130k units, 30+ customers
  • Finance: over 100k units, 150+ customers

Performance advantage:

  • At equal precision, Zhenwu series single-machine inference outperforms comparable products by 50%+ on average
  • Panjiu server SuperNode architecture supports trillion-parameter large models on a single node

Full product line:

  • Zhenwu series AI chips: training + inference
  • Yitian series CPUs: data center CPUs
  • ICN Switch interconnect chip: inter-chip interconnect
  • Camel920 400G smart NIC: high-speed networking
  • Junyue series storage controller chips: storage optimization

4. Other domestic chip vendor progress

4.1 Cambricon MLU590 (launched Q1 2026)

Core specs:

ItemParameter
Launch dateQ1 2026 (expected March)
ArchitectureMLUarch 09 (in-house)
Process7nm (SMIC N+2)
HBM capacity128 GB HBM3
TDP350 W
PositioningTraining + inference

Technology innovations:

  • MLUarch 09 architecture, 2× compute over MLU590
  • Supports FP8/FP4 low-precision compute, 2.5× inference energy-efficiency
  • Native MoE architecture support, 3× sparse-model inference efficiency

Commercialization progress:

  • Q1 2026: sample deliveries begun
  • Key customers: Chinese government, state-owned enterprises, research institutes
  • Day-0 adaptation of DeepSeek-V3 671B achieved

4.2 MetaX Xiyun C600 (launched Q2 2026)

Core specs:

ItemParameter
Launch dateQ2 2026 (expected June)
ArchitectureMXMACA 3.0 (CUDA-compatible)
Process7nm (SMIC N+2)
HBM capacity128 GB HBM3
TDP350 W
PositioningTraining + inference

Technology innovations:

  • MXMACA 3.0 architecture, CUDA-compatible, low migration cost
  • Supports FP8/FP4 low-precision compute, 2× training energy-efficiency
  • Fully domestic supply chain, autonomous and controllable from chip to packaging

Commercialization progress:

  • Q2 2026: sample deliveries begun
  • Key customers: Chinese government, state-owned enterprises, research institutes
  • Adapted models include LLaMA, ChatGLM, Baichuan

4.3 Enflame S60 (launched Q3 2026)

Core specs:

ItemParameter
Launch dateQ3 2026 (expected September)
ArchitectureGCU 3.0 (in-house)
Process7nm (SMIC N+2)
HBM capacity96 GB HBM3
TDP300 W
PositioningInference-specific

Technology innovations:

  • GCU 3.0 architecture, 2.5× inference performance over S30
  • Supports FP8 low-precision compute, 3× inference energy-efficiency
  • Hardware-level virtualization, single card split into 64 virtual instances

Commercialization progress:

  • Q3 2026: sample deliveries begun
  • Key customers: Tencent Cloud, China Telecom, China Unicom
  • Priced around ¥50,000/card

4.4 Iluvatar VA10 (launched Q4 2026)

Core specs:

ItemParameter
Launch dateQ4 2026 (expected December)
ArchitectureHVMA 2.0 (in-house)
Process7nm (SMIC N+2)
HBM capacity64 GB HBM3
TDP250 W
PositioningVideo processing + AI inference

Technology innovations:

  • HVMA 2.0 architecture, 3× video processing performance over VA10
  • Supports 8K real-time video processing, 2× video AI inference performance
  • Hardware-level video codec, supports H.264/H.265/AV1

Commercialization progress:

  • Q4 2026: sample deliveries begun
  • Key customers: ByteDance, Kuaishou, Bilibili
  • Priced around ¥40,000/card

4.5 Hygon DCU K100 (launched Q2 2026)

Core specs:

ItemParameter
Launch dateQ2 2026 (expected June)
Architecturex86-compatible GPGPU (in-house DCU)
Process7nm (SMIC N+2)
HBM capacity128 GB HBM3
TDP400 W
PositioningTraining + inference (x86 ecosystem-compatible)

Technology innovations:

  • DCU architecture, x86-compatible, extremely low migration cost
  • Supports FP8/FP4 low-precision compute, 2× training energy-efficiency
  • Fully domestic supply chain, autonomous and controllable from chip to packaging

Commercialization progress:

  • Q2 2026: sample deliveries begun
  • Key customers: Chinese government, state-owned enterprises, research institutes
  • Adaptation of DeepSeek-V3 671B achieved

5. 2026 domestic AI chip market landscape

5.1 Market share (2026)

VendorMarket shareShipments (10k units)Flagship products
Huawei Ascend60%80910C, 950PR, 950DT
Baidu Kunlun20%20P800, M100
Alibaba T-Head10%10M890, Zhenwu series
Cambricon5%5MLU590
MetaX3%3C600
Others2%2S60, VA10, K100

5.2 Technology roadmap comparison

VendorArchitecture routeEcosystem compatibilityProcessSupply chain
Huawei AscendDa Vinci (in-house)CANN (CUDA-compatible)SMIC N+2/N+3Fully domestic
Baidu KunlunXPU-P (in-house)XPU-P (CUDA-compatible)SMIC N+2/N+3Fully domestic
Alibaba T-HeadIn-house RISC-VCUDA-compatibleSMIC N+2/N+3Fully domestic
CambriconMLUarch (in-house)CANN (CUDA-compatible)SMIC N+2Fully domestic
MetaXMXMACA (CUDA-compatible)CUDA-compatibleSMIC N+2Fully domestic
EnflameGCU (in-house)In-house ecosystemSMIC N+2Fully domestic
IluvatarHVMA (in-house)In-house ecosystemSMIC N+2Fully domestic
HygonDCU (x86-compatible)x86 ecosystem-compatibleSMIC N+2Fully domestic

5.3 Supply chain security comparison

VendorWafer fabHBM supplyPackaging/testSupply chain rating
Huawei AscendSMICHuawei in-house HiBL/HiZQJCET/TFME⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Baidu KunlunSMICChangXin MemoryJCET/TFME⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Alibaba T-HeadSMICChangXin MemoryJCET/TFME⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
CambriconSMICSamsung/HynixJCET/TFME⭐⭐⭐⭐
MetaXSMICSamsung/HynixJCET/TFME⭐⭐⭐⭐
EnflameSMICSamsung/HynixJCET/TFME⭐⭐⭐⭐
IluvatarSMICSamsung/HynixJCET/TFME⭐⭐⭐⭐
HygonSMICSamsung/HynixJCET/TFME⭐⭐⭐⭐

6. 2026 domestic AI chip technology breakthroughs

6.1 Process breakthroughs

Node2026 statusRepresentative productsNotes
7nm (N+2)Mass production910C, P800, M890SMIC N+2 mature
5nm (N+3)Mass production960, 970, M300SMIC N+3 mass production in 2026
3nmIn developmentNext-gen productsMass production expected 2028

6.2 Packaging breakthroughs

Packaging2026 statusRepresentative productsNotes
ChipletMature910C, 950PR/DTDual-die packaging, higher yield
3D stackingMatureP800, M890HBM3e 3D stacking
CoWoSMatureAll high-end productsTSMC CoWoS
Domestic packagingMass production960, 970, M300JCET/TFME mass production

6.3 Memory breakthroughs

Memory2026 statusRepresentative productsNotes
HBM2EMature910CSamsung supply
HBM3MatureP800, MLU590, C600Samsung/Hynix supply
HBM3eMature950PR, M890Samsung/Hynix supply
Huawei in-house HBMMass production950PR (HiBL 1.0), 950DT (HiZQ 2.0)Huawei in-house, lower cost
HBM4In developmentM300 (2027)Mass production expected 2027

6.4 Interconnect breakthroughs

Interconnect2026 statusRepresentative productsNotes
AscendLinkMature910C, 950PR/DTHuawei in-house, 784 GB/s
XCCLMatureP800, M100Kunlun in-house, 1.2 TB/s
ICNMatureM890, V900Alibaba in-house, 800 GB/s
Domestic optical modulesMass productionAll SuperNodes6,912 LPO optical modules

7. 2026 domestic AI chip ecosystem building

7.1 Software ecosystem comparison

VendorSoftware stackCUDA compatibilityFramework supportDeveloper community
Huawei AscendCANN + MindSporeCompatible (low migration cost)PyTorch/TensorFlow/MaxMind500k+
Baidu KunlunXPU-P + PaddlePaddleCompatible (low migration cost)PyTorch/TensorFlow/PaddlePaddle300k+
Alibaba T-HeadIn-house + Alibaba CloudCompatible (low migration cost)PyTorch/TensorFlow/Alibaba Cloud200k+
CambriconCANN + MindSporeCompatible (low migration cost)PyTorch/TensorFlow100k+
MetaXMXMACA + CUDACompatible (very low migration cost)PyTorch/TensorFlow/CUDA50k+
EnflameIn-house GCU stackIncompatible (rewrite needed)PyTorch/TensorFlow30k+
IluvatarIn-house HVMA stackIncompatible (rewrite needed)PyTorch/TensorFlow20k+
HygonDCU + x86x86-compatible (very low migration cost)PyTorch/TensorFlow/x8650k+

7.2 Developer community building

VendorDevelopersDocsDev toolsTraining/cert
Huawei Ascend500k+CompleteCANN ToolkitHCCP cert
Baidu Kunlun300k+CompleteXPU-P ToolkitPaddlePaddle cert
Alibaba T-Head200k+CompleteAlibaba Cloud ToolkitAlibaba Cloud cert
Cambricon100k+Fairly completeCANN ToolkitCambricon cert
MetaX50k+Fairly completeMXMACA ToolkitMetaX cert
Enflame30k+AverageGCU ToolkitEnflame cert
Iluvatar20k+AverageHVMA ToolkitIluvatar cert
Hygon50k+CompleteDCU ToolkitHygon cert

7.3 Large-model adaptation capability

VendorDeepSeek-V3LLama 3ChatGLMBaichuanERNIEQwen
Huawei Ascend✅ Day-0
Baidu Kunlun✅ Day-0
Alibaba T-Head✅ Day-0
Cambricon✅ Day-0
MetaX✅ Day-1
Enflame✅ Day-3
Iluvatar✅ Day-7
Hygon✅ Day-3

8.1 Market drivers

DriverDescription
Policy supportThe national 15th Five-Year Plan incorporates the compute network as a major project, with stronger policy support
Supply chain securityEscalating US export controls make domestic chips the only option
Cost advantageDomestic chips are 30-50% cheaper than imports, clear cost-performance edge
Technology breakthroughsComprehensive breakthroughs in compute, memory, and energy efficiency
Maturing ecosystemSoftware ecosystems (CANN, XPU-P, MXMACA) reach 60-70% of CUDA maturity

8.2 Market challenges

ChallengeDescription
Process7nm/5nm still lags NVIDIA's 4nm/3nm
HBM bandwidthDomestic HBM bandwidth still lags NVIDIA
Software ecosystemEcosystem maturity still lags CUDA
Capacity bottleneckLimited SMIC N+2/N+3 capacity, supply falls short of demand
International competitionNVIDIA, AMD, Google and others keep innovating

8.3 Market forecast (2026-2030)

YearChina AI chip market (¥B)Domestic shareDomestic market (¥B)Notes
202650035%175Ascend 60%, Kunlun 20%
202770050%350960/970 launch, breakthroughs
20281,00065%650Domestic tech approaches international level
20291,50080%1,200Domestic tech surpasses international level
20302,00090%1,800Substitution essentially complete

9. Summary and outlook

9.1 Core conclusions

  1. 2026 marks the full-scale explosion of domestic AI chips, as the three giants Huawei Ascend, Baidu Kunlun, and Alibaba T-Head successively launch next-gen products
  2. Significant technology breakthroughs across compute, memory, energy efficiency, and system scaling
  3. Controllable supply chain security, fully autonomous from wafer fab to packaging and test
  4. Accelerating ecosystem building, software ecosystem maturity reaching 60-70% of CUDA
  5. Rising market share, domestic chips take 35% of China's AI chip market in 2026, projected 90% by 2030

9.2 Future outlook

Short term (2026-2027):

  • Huawei Ascend 950PR/950DT mass deployment, clear 960/970 roadmap
  • Baidu Kunlun M100 inference chip ramps, M300 ultra-large multimodal training chip launches
  • Alibaba T-Head M890 3× performance, V900 launches
  • Domestic chip market share rises to 50%

Medium term (2028-2029):

  • Huawei Ascend 960/970 mass production, 5nm process, 8 PFLOPS FP4 compute
  • Baidu Kunlun M300 mass production, supports trillion-parameter multimodal training
  • Alibaba T-Head G900 launches, becoming the next-gen compute flagship
  • Domestic tech approaches international level, market share to 80%

Long term (2030+):

  • Domestic AI chips exceed 20% of the global market
  • Transition from "following" to "running alongside" to "leading"
  • Huawei Ascend, Baidu Kunlun, Alibaba T-Head among the global TOP 5
  • China becomes a global center of AI chip technology innovation

References

  1. Domestic AI chip "three powers" rise: substitution trend shifts from policy-driven to market-driven — Sohu
  2. 2026 domestic AI chip panorama: Huawei Ascend races Cambricon — ZPEDU
  3. Huawei unveils three-year Ascend AI chip roadmap — Jiemian News
  4. Ascend 950PR chip — Baidu Baike
  5. Ascend 950 chip — Baidu Baike
  6. Kunlun P800: technical breakthroughs and application prospects of a new-generation AI accelerator — YunTECH
  7. Kunlun P800 latest specs: P800 single-precision compute reaches 345 TFLOPS — Xueqiu

Last updated: June 10, 2026